FORT-DE-FRANCE, MARTINIQUE--Some scientists are watching recent activity at Mount Pelée with increased concern following a rise in small volcanic earthquakes, although the official assessment continues to state that the probability of an eruption in the short term remains low.
The Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of Martinique, OVSM-IPGP, continues to monitor the volcano through seismic, ground-deformation and geochemical measurements. Mount Pelée remains at theYellow alert level, which calls for vigilance and continued scientific observation rather than emergency action.
Recent reports citing observatory data indicate that 124 volcanic earthquakes were recorded between July 24 and 31, nearly three times the number detected during the previous week. A total of 331 volcanic earthquakes were reportedly recorded during July. None of the recent events exceeded magnitude 1 or was felt by the population.
The earthquakes do not, by themselves, mean that an eruption is approaching. Such events can be caused by small fractures forming within the volcanic structure as pressure changes or fluids circulate underground.
Scientists have also been studying gradual deformation near the summit. Peer-reviewed research into the period of unrest that began in 2019 identified slight inflation in the upper section of the volcano, potentially linked to a pressure source approximately one kilometre below and slightly southwest of the summit.
While these observations have prompted careful attention from volcanologists, officials have repeatedly stressed that volcanic activity can increase and decrease without leading to an eruption.
“The probability of eruptive activity in the short term remains low,” the observatory has stated. However, based on observations collected over recent months and years, scientists have said that a further change in activity over the medium term, meaning weeks or months, cannot be completely ruled out.
That assessment does not amount to a prediction that Mount Pelée will erupt. It reflects the uncertainty involved in monitoring an active volcanic system and the need for continued observation, preparation and clear public information.
Mount Pelée last erupted in 1932. Its most destructive eruption occurred on May 8, 1902, when pyroclastic flows and surges destroyed Saint-Pierre and killed approximately 28,000 people. That history is one reason the volcano is closely instrumented and monitored today.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to rely on official bulletins from the OVSM-IPGP and the authorities in Martinique, rather than speculation circulating through social media.
For now, the scientific message remains measured: Mount Pelée is showing activity that deserves close monitoring, but there is currently no official indication that an eruption is imminent.
