FORT COLLINS, COLORADO--Colorado State University hurricane researchers have maintained their forecast for a well-below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, citing the development of a strong El Niño and increased upper-level winds that are expected to limit tropical cyclone formation and intensification.
The university’s final seasonal update continues to forecast nine named storms, including four hurricanes and one major hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher. The estimate includes Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha, which have already formed, leaving seven additional named storms forecast through the November 30 end of the season.
For comparison, the 1991 to 2020 seasonal averages are approximately 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. CSU initially forecast 13 named storms and six hurricanes in April before reducing the numbers as confidence increased that El Niño would become the main influence on Atlantic conditions.
El Niño is associated with stronger upper-level winds across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. These winds create vertical wind shear, meaning changes in wind speed and direction at different heights, which can disrupt developing tropical systems and make it more difficult for storms to strengthen.
CSU said sea-surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages, while the expected strength of El Niño remains the primary reason for the reduced forecast.
The outlook also places the probability of a major hurricane striking the continental United States below the historical average. CSU estimated a 16 percent chance of a major hurricane affecting the entire United States coastline during the remainder of the season, compared with the long-term average of 43 percent. The probability for the Gulf Coast was placed at nine percent, compared with an historical average of 27 percent.
Researchers are also forecasting a well-below-average probability of major hurricane landfalls in the Caribbean. However, the reduced seasonal outlook does not eliminate the possibility of a damaging storm affecting any individual island or coastal community.
The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season generally occurs between August and October, when ocean and atmospheric conditions are traditionally most favourable for tropical development. Seasonal forecasts estimate overall activity across the entire Atlantic basin and cannot determine whether a particular country or island will be affected.
CSU continues to remind residents that even a quieter-than-normal season can produce a destructive hurricane and that it takes only one landfalling storm to make the season serious for the affected community.
Residents, businesses and emergency-management authorities throughout the Caribbean are therefore encouraged to maintain hurricane preparations, review emergency plans and continue following official information from national meteorological services and regional disaster-management agencies.
