SINT MAARTEN (PHILIPSBURG) – Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a United Kingdom venture, in its 2023 pre-hurricane season extended range forecast says that at this point in time the season should be a quiet one with about 13 named storms.
Out of the 13 named storms, six are expected to become hurricanes and three of those major Category 3+ hurricanes. In 2022, there were 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricane and two developed into major hurricanes.
“The reason why the TSR extended forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity calls for ACE-activity below the 1991-2020 climate norm level is our current expectation that warm-neutral or weak El Niño conditions will occur during July-August-September 2023. We consider that this is a likely scenario due to the consolidated IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society) forecast that the current La Niña event has peaked and is expected to weaken to neutral by late Spring 2023, with borderline El Niño conditions present during summer. In addition, a fourth consecutive La Niña event has not been recorded since at least 1950 and is very unlikely.”
TSR venture developed from the UK government-supported TSUNAMI initiative project on seasonal tropical cyclone prediction which ran from October 1998 to June 2000.
TSR uses cutting-edge science and technology to develop innovative products to benefit risk awareness and decision making in business, government, and society.
Source: Souliga Newsday https://www.soualiganewsday.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=47537:lions-club-announces-winners-of-the-2022-multiple-district-60-peace-poster-contest&Itemid=450
