SINT MAARTEN/CARIBBEAN – On Thursday the Colorado State University (CSU) released their forecast for the 2024 Hurricane Season and it is their busiest April forecast on record, Crown Weather said on Thursday in a statement.
“Their forecast is for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The forecast is calling for an extremely active hurricane season that would go into one of the busiest hurricane seasons on record.
“One reason for the extremely active hurricane season forecast is the likelihood for a La Nina to develop. La Nina usually increases Atlantic hurricane activity through low wind shear values across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic.
“Another reason is due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures across the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic and this favors Atlantic hurricane activity.
“What’s even more troubling when looking at the forecast is that their statistical model is showing an even more active hurricane season with 25 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes.
“The analog years that Colorado State University used for their forecast are 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020. These analogs were selected based on La Nina conditions and above average ocean temperatures across the tropical Atlantic during the August to October time frame.
“The map below are the tracks of storms during the analog years that CSU came up with. A couple of things popped out at me – First is that the northwestern Caribbean are extremely active during those years; Second is that the northern Leeward Islands also look active and the third is that the central Gulf coast also looks active,” Crown Weather concludes.
MAP
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