Nearly nine years after Hurricane Irma, the new territorial diagnosis carried out by the Territorial Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (ITSEE) in partnership with INSEE Antilles-Guyane highlights the profound changes in Saint-Martin.
This study provides an overview of the territory between 2012 and 2022 and highlights several major trends: demographic decline, population aging and changes in migration patterns.
In 2022, the French part of the island had 31.500 inhabitants, 4.200 fewer than in 2012. While the population decline had already begun before Irma, it accelerated significantly after the cyclone. Between 2012 and 2017, the population decreased by an average of 0,2% per year. Since 2017, this decline has reached 2,3% per year.
Contrary to popular belief, this decline is not primarily linked to the birth rate. While the number of births is indeed decreasing and the number of deaths is increasing, the natural increase remains positive. The main explanation lies in the net migration loss: more people are leaving Saint-Martin while fewer are arriving. For Patrick Hernandez, regional director of INSEE Antilles-Guyane, the primary driver of demographic change is now net migration.
An older population
Another key finding: Saint Martin's population is aging. In ten years, the proportion of those under 25 has fallen from 41% to 35%, while the proportion of those aged 60 and over has risen from 10% to 17%. The territory remains younger than Guadeloupe and Martinique, but the trend is now well established.
This trend is largely explained by the departure of many young people to pursue their studies in mainland France or abroad. “The island's isolation naturally leads our young people to leave,” observes Alain Richardson, president of ITSEE. The analysis also shows that a growing number of Saint-Martin natives are settling in mainland France, where study and employment opportunities are more plentiful.
A territory still marked by its diversity
The study also highlights the unique characteristics of Saint Martin's population. In 2022, only 32% of residents were born in Saint Martin. People born abroad represent 35% of the population, while 20% are from mainland France and 13% from another French overseas territory, primarily Guadeloupe and Martinique. Among immigrants, nearly four out of ten were born in Haiti, followed by Dominica and the Dominican Republic.
According to the authors of the study, this diagnosis should now serve as a basis for more in-depth analyses, particularly on housing and migration, in order to support public decisions in the years to come. _VX
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