Sunday update: Tropical Waves

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000 ABNT20 KNHC 311144 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located nearly 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization. This system should continue moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development is unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain